NATOs Dangerous Wager with Karzai

Ahmed Rashid

Hamid Karzai; sketch by John Springs

At a tighten of a limit meeting in Lisbon upon Saturday, NATO announced it had reached an agreement with a Afghan supervision to go upon fight operations in Afghanistan for years to come. But it is far from transparent which these planswhich postpone a send of shortcoming for security to Afghan forces until 2014will find most await in Kabul. Afghan president Hamid Karzai is a changed man. His worldview right away is decidedly anti-Western. When we spoke with him earlier this month during a presidential house in Kabul, Karzai told me which a US has been unable to move assent to Afghanistan or to secure cooperation from Pakistan, which continues to give refuge to a Taliban. He rejects a barrage of US critique during his supervision upon issues like crime as good as poor administration as good as says a strange sin of all these faults lies with a Americans.

Lasting scarcely two hours, my off-the-record conversation with Karzai was vigorous, as good as during times we strongly pushed back, reminding him of his past commitments as good as his professed await for such ideals such as transparent democracyideals which he had stressed in countless earlier interviews with me as good as others. But this time he rejected each argument. By a finish of our talk, it was utterly transparent to me which his views upon tellurian events, upon a destiny march of NATOs troops swell in southern Afghanistan, as good as upon nation building efforts throughout his nation have undergone a sea change. His single major target right away is creation assent with a Taliban as good as ending a warand he is convinced it will assistance resolve all a pick problems he faces, such as corruption, bad governance, as good as a lack of an administration.

Karzais brand brand new outlook is a most thespian political shift! he has undergone in a twenty-six years which we have good known him. Although it is partly fuelled by conspiracy theories, it is additionally formed upon 9 years of ever flourishing frustration with a West.

He no longer supports a fight upon terrorism as defined by Washington as good as says which a stream troops swell in a south by a United States as good as a NATO allies is unhelpful since it relies upon body counts of dead Taliban as a magnitude of swell opposite a insurgency, which to most would be a reversion to Vietnam as good as a contradiction of Petraeuss brand brand new counterinsurgency theory to win over a people. In sold he wants an immediate finish to a night raids conducted by US Special Operations forcesa demand which has put him in direct dispute with US commander General David Petraeus. According to Karzai, these raidswhich in a last three months have killed or captured 368 mid-level Taliban leaders as good as killed 968 feet soldiersare counterproductive since they antagonize a civilian population. Indeed, no a single knows how most civilians have been enclosed in a misadventure figures, which have been supposing by a US military.

At a NATO summit, President Obama dismissed Karzais concerns about night raids, according to press accounts. If were ponying up billions of dollars to safeguard which President Karzai can go upon to build as good as develop his country, Obama said, then hes got to additionally compensate attention to our concerns as well.

Karzai additionally maintains which there is a political pick to NATO: most some-more of a responsibility could be placed upon countries in a region especially Iran as good as Pakistanto finish a fight as good as assistance reach a allotment with a Taliban. Senior Western as good as Afghan officials in Kabul say Iran has stepped up a await to a Taliban in western Afghanistan in brand new months, presumably as a bargaining chip for destiny talks upon a a! ssent se ttlement. For a part, Pakistan, where a complete leadership of a Taliban is based, wants a leading partial in any talks which NATO or Karzai might have with a Taliban. Yet Karzai told me which in a last six months conjunction Iran nor Pakistan has supposing any substantive await to facilitate peacemaking.

Karzai is desperately tired as good as angry during a churned as good as multiple messages he has perceived for a past 9 years, first from Washington, as good as right away from NATO. He still is irked by a actuality which President Bush refused to yield anything tighten to competent resources or troops for securing Afghanistan for four years after 2001.

More recently, President Obama has vacillated between bolstering a swell as good as charity organisation dates for a begin of a withdrawal. At a NATO summit, Obama forsaken his July 2011 date for a begin of a US couple withdrawal, taking advantage of instead a passing from one to another to Afghan forces but a grave US couple withdrawal. The full passing from one to another as good as drawdown of NATO troops will right away not occur until 2014, as good as even that, NATO officials say, might not meant an finish to fight operations, with allied forces remaining in a supporting role.

Not surprisingly, a Afghans have been totally confused. The doubt in a White House as good as a CIA about either Petraeuss swell is actually operative is additionally a message which reaches Karzai as good as adds to his own suspicions about what a Americans have been up to.

With his enervated position, a fight sharpening opposite a country, as good as Western forces wanting to leave, Karzai still wants to appear presidential as good as reassert Afghan sovereignty. This is just what a communist President Najibullah did as Soviet troops began to leave Afghanistan in 1989only to find himself in a center of a polite war.

Karzai might wish to emb! race Naj ibullah, but he has none of a earlier presidents bottom of power, as good as Karzais reassertion of Afghan supervision can right away usually come through an finish to a fight as good as a allotment with a Taliban. But he is giving contradictory signals to Afghans by behaving as both a supervision in assign as good as a one-man antithesis who mostly bemoans a deaths of Taliban during a hands of bloc forcesbut not of his own soldiers, who have been fighting alongside NATO.

Most of his ministers do not endorse Karzais brand brand new hostility to a Western forces as good as go upon to work good with NATO. However a extensive crime charges which swirl about a Karzai family as good as his ministers go upon to put them during contingency with a general community.

Karzai as good as a US will not partial ways but there is clearly a fundamental as good as flourishing tension between them which does not augur good for either a US or Afghanistan.